Rendering of what the Tesla Model 3 could look like |
When Tesla was started, they had a plan to start at the high end of the market and work their way down. Plenty of EV startups had tried starting at the bottom and gone bankrupt. Tesla planned to start at the high end of the market because new technology is expensive. For example, when DVD players came out in the mid-1990's they were over $500. Today, you can buy one for less than $30. Economies of scale bring down prices.
Tesla's plan was to follow this natural adoption curve and use a start-at-the-top business model. In 2006, Elon Musk wrote:
In short, the master plan is:
Build sports car.
Use that money to build an affordable car.
Use that money to build an even more affordable car.
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options.
Don't tell anyone.
So, Tesla's plan was to create a high-priced low-volume car, then a medium-priced medium-volume car, then a low-priced high-volume car. The first car was the Tesla Roadster.
Tesla Roadster
Tesla Roadster |
The Tesla Roadster was codenamed DarkStar. The plan was to use Lotus Elise frames, AC Propulsion motors, and commodity batteries. Tesla would work on battery packaging and battery management. The rest would be nearly as simple as the home EV conversions that many hobbyist undertake. That plan didn't work out as expected.
The car body had to be significantly redesigned. Quality problems plagued the AC Propulsion motors. Tesla had to raise the price and delay the launch several times. These problems nearly killed the fledgling company. But they got through them and learned many lessons that they could directly apply to their next project. In 2008 the Roadster was launched and the campaign to change the view of EVs as glorified golf carts was off to a racing start.
Tesla Model S
Tesla Model S |
Then something unexpected happened.
When the GM EV1 was being sold, there were two battery options: the standard lead acid pack and a longer range nickel-metal hydride option. The cheaper lead acid model accounted for the vast majority of
After 3 months of preorders, the 40 kWh version was just 4% of the demand. Tesla canceled the 40 and said that existing preorders for the 40 would receive a vehicle with a 60 kWh pack and a software restriction to make it effectively a 40 kWh vehicle.
This was just the first step in Tesla recognizing their buyers' attraction to the high-end market. They continued to court the high-end making improvements and adding options that led to higher margin products. Battery upgrades, performance models, dual motors, ludacris mode, and autopilot moved subsequent offerings up the price scale.
All this upscaling helped Tesla's cash flow.
Is is time for the high volume car?
- The Roadster was done - Phase 1 (low volume, high price)
- Model S was shipping and winning awards left and right - Phase 2 (medium volume, medium price) was complete-ish.
- So now it's time for the affordable high volume car, right? Almost.
Phase 3 Needs A Gigafactory
The battery market had not blossomed the way a high volume vehicle would need. Tesla had defined their mission as, "To accelerate the advent of electric vehicles." This meant that if battery price/production was the limiting factor, that is what they would focus on and address.Tesla Gigafactory Rendering |
The gigafactory was not just planned as yet another battery factory. The massive scale of it needs to be mentioned. This one factory will double the global battery production. If you add up all the battery factories in China, Japan, Korea and elsewhere that were operating when the Gigafactory broke ground, this one factory would produce more than all of the others combined.
Tesla expects the Gigafactory to reduce the production costs by 30%. The factory is currently under construction and partially operational, but Tesla will need much more of it complete before moving to phase 3.
So what to do while the massive battery factory is being built? If the low price vehicle is not an option, then another another phase 2 vehicle. Let's call it Phase 2.5.
Model X
Tesla Model X |
Just as with Tesla's first two cars, this vehicle was plagued with production delays. Again, given time, Tesla's engineers worked through the issues. In a recent earning report conference call, Elon Musk said that it was hubris that caused Tesla to take on such an ambitious project and that no car company, not even Tesla, will ever again make a vehicle so great.
Many have lamented that the Model X was causing the affordable car to be postponed. This is not the case. What's delaying the Model 3 is lithium batteries produced on a massive scale, but it's coming.
Model ≡
So we are finally going to see the Tesla Model 3 at it's unveiling set for March 31. The Model 3 was codenamed
But enough speculation, we'll learn more about Model 3 in less than a month. The real question is, when the Model 3 is shipping and the secret plan from 2006 is complete, what will Tesla do next?
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